Friday, May 30, 2014

Rule number two…be aware of the interest rate.




The interest rate can be used to determine entry point and exit point of an investment vehicle dependent upon ones strategy and any applicable derivatives used for hedging purposes.


As interest rates increase so does the rate of return on risk free treasury notes. If the government one day is willing to go from a 2% yield to a 4% yield for a 10yr treasury note it will cause stocks prices to fall until the return on stocks rise well above treasury notes while bond prices fall (limits spending). And the math is fairly simple in the short term as it is: current stock price/rate of return wanted ( a reasonable number above bonds) = new share price. But it is not a sure science as it depends on the level of debt financing entities have incurred as they will lose more money with higher rates on loans. Low debt financing entities can benefit price wise and even dividend paying companies can see benefits when rates rise... as rising rates signifies economic growth for companies not trapped in debt.



Commodities prices have historical changed indirectly proportional to the interest rate while Forex prices change directly proportional to the interest rate. And since historical inflation in the US is about 3.5% when interest rates rise bank products such as CD's become more attractive as they can see rates higher than the average rate of inflation.